A case of mistaken incumbency
The Messenger Platform isn't the new App Store, but Messenger for Business might be the new web
I'm just going to leave this here. pic.twitter.com/70tqArVX4l— Chris Maddern (@chrismaddern) March 26, 2015
The Messenger platform appears to be an extension of Facebook's existing mobile app promotion strategy, rather than a wedge into a world where apps live on Facebook. Evolutionary rather revolutionary, unless there's a surprise coming down the road.
If there is an incumbent that should feel threatened by the announcements at F8, it's Google. Messenger for Business (a B2B2C play) is seemingly much more transformative than the Messenger Platform (largely a B2C play). If you're a retailer today, you must be on mobile, which means that you must be on iOS, Android and the web. What can end up happening in this scenario is that the mobile web version plays third banana in engineering priorities, doesn't convert as well as the native apps, and thus begets a vicious cycle in which the mobile web version gets further deemphasized and degraded. Between the web (left) and iOS (right) versions of the Bloomingdale's app, which mobile experience do you think converts better? Which one is getting more love?
Between the web (left) and iOS (right) versions of the Bloomingdale's app, which mobile experience do you think converts better? Which one is getting more love?
When you factor in how much easier it is for Bloomingdale's to register users for push notifications than it is for an email newsletter, and that Apple Pay will likely not be available for the mobile web as it is for native apps, native apps clearly take priority.
Now Messenger for Business comes around, enabling a communication channel between retailer and end user that's more intimate than ever. If it converts better than the mobile web does, which is possible and maybe even likely, that's a compounding loss: Not only will it further divert attention from mobile web development, but consumer demand will aggregate around Messenger. In a Messenger for Business world, when you think, "I want to buy a new pair of shoes," you'll either search or browse Messenger for retailers with shoes. You won't Google for them, because you'll know that the mobile web experience is likely to be inferior.
And if Messenger for Business converts even better than native apps do, Facebook could enable retailers to offload the duplicative mobile app development they're all doing and focus more exclusively on Facebook marketing. In a manner that's similar to Facebook's approach to news ("Hey content creators, keep doing what you do best — content creation — and let us do what we do best — publishing"), Facebook could enable retailers to focus on what they do best — product curation, product development and customer service — and let Facebook operate the mobile shop. Recall that Google is fine with Apple selling phones as long as customers turn to Google for their search queries; if searching the mobile web becomes secondary or tertiary behavior, however, Google doesn't just lose on iOS, they lose on Android. In short, when the web loses, Google loses.
What with Google Maps dominance and businesses' longtime focus on discoverability within Google, it's interesting to imagine how strongly Google would have been suited to do this had they figured out social, or not let mobile messaging whither on the vine, as they have. In a Messenger for Business world, they have more to lose than anyone.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯