My app and I are hurting
On the long odds of success in the App Store, the overconfidence bias, and embracing the good in the bad
This post is part of this week's Startup Edition. This week's question: How do you know when to pivot?

the snapix app
More early successes: As early adopters of the Facebook app marketing program, we A/B tested our way to install rates at an extremely favorable CPI's. The first thing I'd do every morning is open the app and check out the dozens of new users who had created lots of new, creative "snaps". A clique of users in Australia were positively addicted to our app, even posting signs in their office to download Snapix (organic guerrilla marketing!). An executive at Zynga made an inquiry out of the blue.
Roll back a few months to when we had just conceived of Snapix. We were not naïve. With a small budget for marketing, no plans to form a full-time venture (it was just a side project), and limited free time outside of our day jobs, our only chance for real big success was virality. We knew the era when "virality" sufficed as a one-word marketing plan ended in about 2007, even if Snapchat was staring us in the face as an example of an app that grew organically to a massive scale.
The Side Projecter's Dilemma

Problem is, any online community requires the community managers to stoke the fire. And app users in particular are often reactivated when they see a new version of your app in the App Store or Google Play. Users have a spidey-sense for when the app creators have slowed down their activity; the lack of "feeling" that the product was being attended to is partly what caused Flickr's decline, for instance.
We also turned off the Facebook marketing, and since then the number of new users per day sometimes dips as low as single-digits. Recently there have been periods where I haven't opened the app for 24 hours, only to find that the last photo posted was the one I posted 24 hours ago.
"Haven't opened the app for 24 hours???" you might be wondering. If you're using your own app so infrequently, what chance does it have?
And you'd be right. While I still love the product we built to death, it pains me that usage is now dominated by my partners and our friends. Opening the app is a visceral reminder of the gap between the objective odds of success and what the overconfidence bias led me to believe.
Now it's important to remind that Snapix is just a side project, not a full-time venture. Were it the latter, I'd be much more crushed. In addition, I'd be financially obligated to exhaust every last hypothesis that might convert our product from where it is to something stickier and more viral. There are lots of product changes and hypotheses we haven't explored because it's a side project and we have other priorities.
My Snapix partners and I are left with the following choices, at least in theory:
- Rearrange our priorities in order to try to revive Snapix, or pivot it into something more successful
- Pull it from the App Store and call it a day so none of us have to experience the pain of its lack of traction
- Leave it as is and appreciate the fact that we built a great fucking app that we once used obsessively and still adore, despite the pain
It's a no-brainer — even the thought of taking the app offline makes me shudder. That would be far more painful than the slowdown in usage. Revising or "pivoting" the app is a possibility, but not for now, as the guy who developed Snapix is now living in a different hemisphere as the other partner and myself. Pivoting the app from across the world, at a time when we're all focused on other things, seems like a different kind of pain.
Fulfilling a promise
Come to think of it, the guy I was when I started on Snapix was pretty wise. It's about time I get in touch with that guy and acknowledge all the good I had promised myself.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯