A wild guess: The iPad TV
While everyone focuses on whether the iPad is getting squeezed by laptops and phones, they've glossed over a big part of the ecosystem: TV.
April 27, 2014
With all the hubbub around slowing iPad sales, there's been a lot of talk about the future of the iPad. Some dismiss the trend as short-sighted and many are optimistic. Some have entertained the notion that we might have overestimated the tablet's value. Others are cautiously pessimistic and wonder if it isn't time to make the iPad more like a desktop OS.
I'll rehash the conversation as quickly as possible, but there is one idea which hasn't been discussed much, as far as I know: What if the iPad isn't a computer that can't do "real work", nor a luxury, spare iPhone, but actually a low-end replacement for the TV bundle?
Here's the gist of the conversation thus far. Skip to the end of this post if you're only interested in my wild guess about an iPad TV.
iPads are simpler and more relaxing for some things
Many people enjoy the fact that their iPad is not the same device as the one they use for work (work = stress). It makes it more desirable to use on your living room couch.
There's a lot of overlap
The iPad is much better for some things, but not a lot of things, than laptops or smartphones.
Will larger smartphones eat the iPad?
With phones growing larger and tablets seemingly having some limit on how big they can get without becoming cumbersome, is there really that much you can do with an iPad that you can't do with an iPhone?
Maybe an iPad Pro will replace laptops?
Would a more amphibious touch/point-and-click OS make the iPad a machine where you can get "real work" done? Did Microsoft get it right with the Surface, but too soon and with poor execution?
Is the iPad just a luxury device?
If nothing changes, is the iPad just a luxury device with long replacement cycles?
Wait, slow down: We forgot about one device
If the iPad is getting squeezed by laptops and phones for the things they both do well, wouldn't it make sense to enhance the iPad with things it does uniquely well? We can roughly distill the tablet to its core value proposition by looking at what's left when manufacturers make cheap, plastic tablets: A TV/video/web-browsing device.
Here's the idea: What if the iPad becomes the true "digital hub" for entertainment by leveraging the big, beautiful television screens we all have in our living rooms? This is pure speculation, and frankly I have my own doubts about this, but I haven't seen this idea floated yet.
An iPad TV might work like this:
- The Apple TV shrinks to a Chromecast-like dongle that does AirPlay and nothing else. You can bring it on vacation or on work trips and have the same multi-screen, television experience you have at home.
- Hardware updates to the iPad focus heavily on beaming high-quality video/audio. Perhaps an "iPad TV" model that's intended for the living room is permitted to get thicker and heavier.
- Software updates enable multitasking such that the television can be used as a first or second screen. You can beam the audio/video for a sports game while using another app on your iPad.
- More on multitasking: The SDK enables "second screens" in apps so that you can deliver different views to the iPad screen and TV screen, along the lines of the Wii-U.
- TV's can focus on what they do best: Serving as a dumb end point for high-quality video.
This arrangement would answer a few questions and solve a few problems:
- It would explain why Apple TV has been stuck with an iOS 4-style interface for years now. Perhaps Apple hasn't put many resources there because they've been waiting for an iPad TV to take its place.
- Typing on an Apple TV is currently a pain. With an iPad TV, it immediately becomes simple because the iPad serves as an amazing remote control.
- It builds a strong identity for the iPad that's not just a big iPhone or a touch-screen laptop
- It qualifies as the "new product" category that Tim Cook is always alluding to.
- It might even qualify as the "nut" Steve Jobs said he had cracked regarding an "integrated television"
The primary question with this idea is: Can an iPad-based, wireless video server produce video that's anywhere near the quality of a wired set top box?
My guess: Probably not, but it doesn't matter. There are some elements of the disruptive innovation story: While most in the television/set top box industry is focused on delivering super high-quality at a premium, many people would gladly opt for a lower-quality, simpler experience. Sure, iPads aren't cheap, but they are cheap compared to the monthly subscription for your cable box.
As I mentioned above, I have doubts about this idea myself. If you think this idea might have merit, send me a tweet or share it so that someone who's better qualified at this can pick it apart.
